NE-02: Building the Base

Earlier in day, we noted that the DCCC added businessman Jim Esch (and seven others) to its Red to Blue program. Esch is making his second try against GOP Rep. Lee Terry in Nebraska’s Omaha-based 2nd District, which has a PVI of R+9.

This is an interesting race for a lot of reasons. Despite the lion’s share of the hype in 2006 being directed to Maxine Moul in Nebraska’s 1st and Scott Kleeb in the 3rd District, Esch came the closest to beating a Republican of all three Nebraska House candidates, falling short of Terry by 10% despite running a low-budget campaign. A poll from earlier this summer showed Terry leading by 47-38 — a similar 9-point margin, but under the 50% “vulnerability” threshold for incumbents. Even more interesting are the Presidential numbers in the district — that poll pegged McCain’s lead at a mere four points. It’s numbers like those that show you why Terry was mouthing off so loudly about “Obama-Terry voters” earlier this year.

I think it would take a big national win by Obama in order for him to pick off this electoral vote, and I don’t think that such a scenario is in the cards. But the effort is still being made, as evidenced by the Obama campaign setting up shop in Omaha on Wednesday:

“An Obama win in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District is an important piece of our pathway to victory this Tuesday, November 4th,” said Obama Campaign Manager David Plouffe. “By opening a Nebraska campaign headquarters – the first presidential campaign this cycle to do so – we are able to empower residents to join our grassroots movement for change.”

That event attracted 900 volunteers. However, it’s numbers like these that are the most interesting tea leaves of this election:

Figures from the Douglas County Election Commissioner’s Office show that almost 1,200 registered Democrats were added to county rolls in the past three months, compared with 53 for Republicans.

That was on top of strong Democratic registrations last winter. In February, for example, when Obama made a campaign stop in Omaha, Democrats registered more than double the number that Republicans registered.

The election office said it has a backlog of several thousand registration forms yet to process.

Karl Rove’s biggest success, and his longest-lasting contribution to the Republican Party, was his efforts to build the GOP’s base by activating conservative evangelical voters and making them aware of the stakes in the 2004 election. While Barack Obama’s ultimate fate this November is still very much up in the air, the numbers are pretty clear — in NE-02 and in key swing states around the nation — one party is growing their base, and the other is not.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican.